Over the last 12 months, Africa’s democratic trajectory has been extremely volatile, ranging from protests in Eswatini (Swaziland) demanding an end to the country’s absolute monarchy, a peaceful turnover of power in Zambia, a full scale insurgency in Ethiopia and a military coup in Sudan.
In Somalia, the Al Shabaab remains a potent headache in the horn of Africa and is bound to persist in 2022. Another Jihadi group, an offshoot of the Islamic State which had already curved out space in Northern Mozambique was easily routed out by the SADC countries though the overall military effort could be attributed to the professionalism and dedication to duty by the Rwanda Defence Forces. (RDF).
The military success in Mozambique by RDF is a major propaganda victory for the country and another sign of Rwanda’s increased regional military power in eastern and southern Africa.
In South Sudan there has been repeated international nudging for the signed peace agreement to hold. It is likely to hold but barely as personal interests and historical suspicion among the two major ethnic groups remain hard to dissolve.
Then there is the Democratic republic of Congo (DRC) a complex Gordian knot not so easily resolved. The persistent attacks in the Eastern parts of the country by the little known Allied Democratic Front have largely been curtailed after the Uganda Peoples Defence Forces (UPDF) with permission from the DRC government moved in a brigade sized force into the DRC counter the militants. Such action though may only be limited in terms of results because of the sheer size of the country and the number of armed groups operating there.
Another simmering case is Cameroon. There have been some lukewarm attempts by setting up dialogue by the Cameroon leadership to counter the increasing protests for secession within the Anglophone region.
In Ethiopia, the president attempt to militarily bring the restless Tigray region to heel failed with the insurrection apparently metamorphosing into an entrenched insurgency. The lukewarm ceasefire presently in place is likely to extend for considerable time as the international community bystander attitude seems to adopt persists.
The major fear from observers is that Ethiopia could be headed for an implosion
Politically, in 2022, developments in three key countries—Angola, Kenya, and Senegal—will provide an important bellwether for where the continent is heading. All three countries face important local and national elections. Given Kenya’s recent history of violent and contested polls, this will likely be one of the coming year’s most intensely watched elections.
The Boko Haram
But the main focal point will be in the Sahel.
The Jihadi Groups have been incessant in their operations in the Sahel region and have now made signature moves deep in the neighbouring countries of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
Amison troops in Somalia
Another simmering case is Cameroon. There have been some lukewarm attempts by setting up dialogue by the Cameroon leadership to counter the increasing protests for secession within the Anglophone region.
Gazing at the Crystal ball, Africa is a large and unpredictable continent, but the aforementioned are likely to be the key issues to look out for in 2022.