KENYA
INTRODUCTION
In the first quarter of the year, the global security attention has been riveted on the war pitting Russia against Ukraine. The impact of the invasion on could have dramatic consequences for African nations that depend heavily on Russian and Ukrainian exports compounding the impact of political uncertainty and drought in Africa.
In Kenya, the following are some of the major issues security wise in the first quarter.
- The Russia-Ukraine war has affected oil supply globally, causing a price increase it could lead also to a disruption of wheat and fertilizer supply in the country.
- Fuel shortage haunted motorists and generally affected the transport industry. Oil dealers linked the fuel shortages to a lack of clarity on the fuel subsidy that the State introduced in April 2021 to stabilize the prices.
- Treasury Cabinet Secretary read the 2022/23 national budget earlier than the norm in June in a bid to accelerate economic recovery for improved livelihoods and to ease the release of funds for the forthcoming elections The security sector was allocated Sh317.8 billion with the majority of the funds earmarked for leasing police vehicles, the police modernization program, the national communication, and surveillance system, and purchasing equipment for the newly constructed forensic laboratory at the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI).
- Politically, it has been a period of realignment for the various political aspirants and the holding of party nominations. Political violence has so far been seemingly contained and the various government security agencies have shown indications that the peaceful situation will prevail. However, as the election date gets closer electoral campaigns are bound to get intense with attendant rise in threats, violence and cyber-crimes.
- In mid-April 2022, the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi issued an advisory to its citizen to be vigilant throughout this month due to the ongoing political party nominations and the following periods of campaigning leading to the general elections. The US embassy fears could be attributed to several attacks by the Al-Shabaab jihadists in Lamu county.
- In the period under review too, the United States government issued a bounty of up to USD5 million for information on the whereabouts of one Jehad Serwan Mostafa, alias Ahmed Gurey, believed be a high-ranking member of the Somalia-based militant group Al-Shabaab.
- Crime wise, marauding bandits have been active in the far flung areas of Samburu, Marsabit and the adjacent counties and despite intensive patrols by the security agencies, the situation abated but only for some time. Grazing areas conflicts, restocking of livestock after the extended bout of drought could largely be responsible for this attacks. A danger though exists that with the elections drawing close, the attacks can easily assume a political agenda.
- Up to 26 bodies believed murdered had earlier been recovered from the banks of the Yala river in Siaya County. Many of the bodies remain unidentified and so far no explanation has been garnered from any source over this macabre issue.
· The annual Securexpo East Africa a benchmark security industry event took place this quarter with thousands of professionals from across the security, fire and safety industry coming together to explore opportunities & developments.
- Homicides and suicides have been the most prevalent serious crimes within the period under review, with 30 incidents reported. The most recent case which hit the national headlines was of the case of a young female athlete. Cases of National Police suicides are also emerging as a major concern with the Inspector General of Police publicly admitting that mental strain is a big challenge within the law enforcers.
- The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) in conjunction with election security stakeholders jointly launched an Election Security Arrangement Programme (ESAP) that will ensure a free, fair and credible general election, 2022.
LOOK FORWARD
With heightened political temperatures, sporadic violence is likely to be witnessed across the length and breadth of the country as electoral campaigns move a notch or two higher. Cases of cattle rustling are expected to soar as the nomadic community’s raid neighbours to restock their herds. The fallout of the Russia/Ukraine war is also likely to reach the regional shores sooner rather than later.