-: Apr 29, 2019 / Julius Musungu

Drive Today Analysis

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  PRESIDENT BASHIR EXISTS THE STAGE

 

On April 11, 2019, President Bashir of Sudan left power after nearly four months of protests and a dozen deaths. The announcement by the Sudan’s military that it had finally unseated the President, a burst of joy exploded outside the military headquarters in Khartoum where huge throngs of protesters had massed.  President Bashir had ruled Sudan for the last 30 years.

With President Bashir out of picture, The Sudanese Minister of Defence announced the formation of a military council during a two-year transitional period, A suspension of the country’s constitution and state of emergency for three months Imposed.

ANALYST’ COMMENT

The following are the possible assessments:

·         Power corrupts but probably also blinds. It is baffling that the 75 year old Bashir failed to read the rising political temperature in the country especially following the developments arising from the Arab spring within the last couple of years.

·         It is noteworthy that most of the protestors were millennial and were heartily and openly supported by enlisted members of the Sudan Armed forces in the latter stages of the protest. This should be worrisome to regimes across the continent. The tensions between the demonstrators and the newly formed post Bashir administration will likely continue in the short to medium term.

·         The supposedly Coup de tat by the military has all the trappings of a palace coup probably engineered by Bashir himself and may not respond to the aspirations of the Sudanese people for real and deep change.

·         With Bashir out of power, the International community is now likely to be vocal in calling for Bashir to be extradited to The Hague to face charges of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. This is unlikely to be an easy option considering the some members of the Military transitional council have also been sanctioned for having engineered genocide and other war crimes in Darfur.

·         Another possible emergent scenario is a possibility that the low intensity conflicts in Darfur, Southern Kordoforan and Blue Nile could explode to full scale insurgencies with calls for Secession from Khartoum especially if the stand-off between the Protestors and the Military persists. The three states have perennially been restless and have remained united with Sudan probably due to Bashir’s strong Arm tactics. 

·         In The region too, the exit of Bashir could lead to the stalling of the negotiations over the Nile waters between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Renaissance Dam.

·         A positive impact arising from the ouster of Bashir could be the softening of positions between President Silava Kiir AND Riek Machar. Bashir had laboured so hard –at least –Overtly to bring the two leaders together. His Ouster will be more pronouncedly felt by Riek Machar who had reportedly been depending more on Bashir for the steady supply of armaments. Bashir Sudan is likely to bring to the fore engulf the surrounding countries with several other crises.

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